Brazil’s corn production drop seen reversing

By Luís Vieira

Two of the most prominent Brazilian economists José Roberto Mendonça de Barros and Luiz Carlos Mendonça de Barros created in 1978 a consultancy called MB Associados to advise people interested on Brazil’s macroeconomics. As the importance of agriculture grew rapidly in the 1990s and early 2000s, the two associates have decided to create an agricultural arm for the company in 2005 – MB Agro, which is based in São Paulo.

In an interview to Agriculture.com, José Carlos Hausknecht, director of MB Agro, said that in the coming months a likely higher US dollar value might be helpful to Brazilian farmers, but he denied to predict an specific number. As of today, US$ 1 buys R$ 2.24. In 2014, the price reached over R$ 2.50.

Read the interview at Agriculture.com

Perfect conditions reported for wheat planting in Paraná, Brazil

The Department of Rural Economics of the Brazilian state of Paraná reported this week that planting already reached seven percent of a total estimated area of nearly three million acres of wheat in the state. Almost half of what was planted in is the stage of germination. The other half is on vegetative stage.  According to the report, 100 percent of the crops are either in excellent or good conditions.

Weather helps and second corn crop advances in Brazil

The planting of the second corn crop has advanced to 99 percent of the area in all the states south of Brasília, the most important producing areas of the country. According to Clarivi consultancy, the stage of flowering was reached in the state of Paraná and some parts of the center-west of Brazil. By comparison, last year in this same period the crop had reached 91.4 percent of the area. That area, however, is 2.3 percent smaller than the previous season because of lower corn prices. The projection is that Brazil will have a total corn crop of 75.4 million tons.

Argentina: soybean harvest reaches 14% of area

The weekly report of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange has released data on the progress of the soybean harvest in Argentina. The harvest has reached 14 percent of projected area of the country. More than seven inches were registered in the most important producing areas that are the provinces of Santa Fé, Córdoba, Entre Ríos, and Buenos Aires last weekend. A larger delay was expected, but the harvest pace is just 10 percent behind the last season. No productivity losses are forecast.

Secorn corn crop may have lower productivity in Mato Grosso

The planting of the second corn crop, known locally as safrinha, in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, in the center-western part of the country, has almost finished. But signs of a lower productivity have already appeared. For instance, Sorriso’s Rural Union informed this week that average losses for farmers from the region are at 10 percent compared to the productivity of last year. Some producers in the region have lost up to 30 percent of the productivity, Brazil’s portal G1 reported today. Those losses are happening because of continued rains in large parts of Mato Grosso. Corn was planted out of the ideal period after a delay on the soybean harvest.

Chinese cancellations could get to two million tons of soybeans

After Reuters unveiled a default from Chinese companies of soybean contracts with Brazil and United States totaling a volume of 500,000 tons, representatives of the US Soybean Export Council told Bloomberg that China firms could cancel soybean contracts as big as two million tons. Soybeans traded lower yesterday in Chicago as a result of those talks.

USDA estimate for Brazilian crop still higher than most pvt consultancies

By Luís Vieira

The USDA report has reduced the size of the Brazilian soybean crop to 87.5 million tons, but the number is still higher than most private consultancies have predicted. Carlos Cogo, a Porto Alegre consultant, puts the Brazilian soybean crop at 86 million tons.

For Cogo, domestic soybean prices may stabilize. “There is a trend of accommodation of domestic prices in the short-term as the harvest advances and an increased domestic supply in Brazil. If a record crop is confirmed in the US, “, he explained.

The corn production in Brazil, according to Cogo, will be nearly 75.4 million tons – higher than the 72 million tons forecast by the USDA. For the corn market, the analyst says that Brazil stocks will fall 6.4 percent to 8 million tons. “If this scenario is confirmed, prices would overcome the ones registered in the third quarter of 2013″, predicted.

Cogo also pointed out that Brazil’s National Supply Company has made a serious mistake with their own crop estimates. The state agency report predicted a total grain production in Brazil of 190.6 million tons, while the real number is 189.4 million tons – not a record of grain output. “Their sum included the wheat data regarding the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 crop seasons”, revealed.

Major strike stops grain sales in Argentina

This Wednesday, Argentina has started a general strike led by the country’s General Confederation of Workers. For the grain market, that means that agricultural products in that country will not be transported today and cereals will not be shipped. Unions of several sectors protest for better salaries and against the government of Cristina Kirchner.

Rains in Santa Fé province threatens over 247,000 acres of soybeans

Approximately 247,105 acres of soybeans in the province of Santa Fé, in the northeast of Argentina, can be lost because of a critical condition generated by rains over the last 45 days. According to the Santa Fé Board of Trade, it would also affect corn, sorghum, and soybeans of second crop. The current status is that soil conditions have been deteriorating over the past few days in the northern part of the province. Passage over nearby roads has been complicated to the higher level of water.

Wheat planting starts fast in Paraná

Farmers from Paraná, a southern state of Brazil, have already started wheat planting. According to the local Department of Rural Economics, the area planted already reached four percent of the total estimated for the whole state. Prices are likely to remain high because of lower stocks in the region and wheat imported outside of the Mercosur bloc pays an external tariff.