Consultancy AgRural released a report today that says that the soybean planting in Brazil has reached 95 percent of the estimated surface. A week ago, planting was at 90 percent and last year in this same period was at 93 percent. Precipitations in several parts of the country have helped producers to advance with the works quickly.
The consultacy also revised up the estimates for production to 101.8 million metric tons. The previous projection was at 100.4 million metric tons. In the Center-western and Northeastern parts of the country, the weather has improved, creating a perspective of better yields.
According to official data, the Brazilian state of Paraná has finished the wheat harvest with a total production of 3.38 million metric tons. For the consultancy Trigo & Farinhas, most of that output may have “good quality”. “We do not know about any significant forage wheat in that state this year. Everything can be used by the mills,” affirmed Luiz Carlos Pacheco, director of Trigo & Farinhas.
The market would also add 420,000 tons coming from Paraguay and 2.5 million metric tons would be used by local mills, while 750,000 tons would be sent to other states and 120,000 tons for the meal industry. The final stocks would be 313,000 tons, say the numbers of Trigo & Farinhas.
The prices of soybeans have been sustained in the first week of December in Brazil, according to the Center of Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) of the University of São Paulo. The recent dollar appreciation, a stronger demand and weather worries in both Brazil and Argentina have influenced prices. In Brazil’s major port of Paranaguá (state of Paraná) the soybean value jumped 3.87 percent in November and jumped another 0.11 percent in the first days of November. Last Friday, the bag of 60 kilograms was worth R$ 80.08.
“This scenario has reduced the soybean sales of the 2016/2017 season, once the soybean growers in Brazil have a expectation of higher prices early in 2017. It is valid to remember that the negotiations were hotter in the middle of November with value above the export parity,” the Cepea report reads.
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has raised its forecast for soybean production in the country to 101.4 million metric tons during the 2016/2017 season. The previous projection was at 101.3 milllion metric tons.
Considering this total output, Abiove projects a total crushing of 41 million metric tons, while the exports would reach 57.5 million metric tons. The soybeal meal production would be at 31.1 million metric tons, while soybean oil would remain at 8.1 million metric tons.
For 2016, the association readjusted its forecast of processing, exports and final stocks in Brazil. Abiove reduced the processing from 39.9 to 38.4 million metric tons. The exports estimate fell from 52.5 million metric tons to 39.4 million metric tons, while the imports were kept at 400,000 tons. If those numbers are confirmed, the Brazilian final stocks would reach 4.2 million metric tons.
The soybean planting in Brazil has reached on Friday 90 percent of the projected surface, according to Curitiba consultancy AgRural. The progress is slightly above the historic average, which is 88 percent by this time of the year. Scarcity of rains have been seen in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul and north of Paraná. The total output estimate for the country is 100.4 million metric tons – 0.6 percent higher than last year. “Now, the focus of many farmers in Mato Grosso is to focus on harvest. By planting in the fastest pace in history, the state can harvest a record volume in January. AgRural calculates that the state would end the first month of January with 20 to 25 percent of the crop harvested,” the AgRural report reads. This would mean a volume of 7.3 million metric tons.
In the meantime, the summer corn crop in the country reaches 92 percent of the estimated area. Now the planting works are focused in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goiás. In the meantime, there is need for more rain in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
By Luís Vieira
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – In the last several years, cattle prices have seen a significant rebound. On the other hand, the advent of new players, or not so new in the case of Argentina, could have U.S. cattle producers on edge.
For years, extensive reports articulated how export taxes impacted grain farmers in Argentina. However, not many talked about the results of brutal government intervention in the cattle business for the country and global markets.
Since 2009, the government of Argentina imposed periodical bans on beef exports in order to control domestic food prices and 15% export taxes. As a result, the country lost nearly 10 million cattle herds and currently has slightly fewer than 50 million herds in stock, according to officials. In stark contrast, countries like Brazil, India, and Paraguay increased their stocks and exports exponentially in those years.
According to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, planting of corn in Argentina has advanced to 41.1 percent of the projected surface. Some projections had said that half of that cereal planted would be harvested early, but now most estimates say that early harvesting would be only in 40 percent of the total area. As there are reports of hail occurrences, more corn losses could be accounted in key producing regions, but overall the crop conditions are good.
At least until the third week of November, Brazilian corn exports reached 5.50 million metric tons, according to official data. The number is 82.3 percent lower comparing to the same period of last year and 23.6 percent lower comparing to the daily average of October. According to an analysis of Scot Consultancy from the state of São Paulo, more competition of U.S. corn lowered Brazilian exports.
In Argentina, the crushing of soybeans and sunflower has grown 6.1 percent in the first ten months of the year. The total volume crushed of those grains in that period was 39.9 million metric tons. This tonnage was later sold by US$ 16.5 million.
Considering that total, 37.4 million metric tons were crushed of soybeans and 2.5 million metric tons of sunflower with a production of 1.03 million tons of sunflower oil, 28.6 million tons of soybean pellets and another 1.02 million metric tons of sunflower pellets.
After the worst of the rains passed, the wheat harvest in Argentina has reached 17.7 percent of the projected surface of 10.6 million acres, but still there is a delay of 2.3 percentage points comparing to 2015, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. The harvest progressed 5.6 percentage points in one week.
Recent low-intensity rains have stopped works in the provinces of the North, while some parts of central provinces like Buenos Aires still have a long way to wait before the harvesters start to work. In the meantime, the official production forecast of the Argentinean government is 14.9 million metric tons because it considers also non-commercial production. The Buenos Aires Cereal Exhange foresees an output of 12.5 million metric tons of the cereal.