The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange informed that the soybean harvest advanced to 3.9 percent of the surface in Argentina. The production forecast of 57 million tons, a record crop, was maintained by the exchange. The harvest already started in the provinces of Córdoba, Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, and Buenos Aires.
Meteorology services say that rains are expected for the center and northern regions of the country over this weekend, but by Tuesday sunny days would take over in the top producing regions.
Argentina expects to harvest nearly 22.5 million tons of corn in this season, according to a projection from the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. But the country’s Agriculture Ministry says, on the other hand, that production can be up to 30 million tons because of better yields in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos.
The Cereal Exchange report says that there is yet 5.6 percent of a total surface of 7.75 million acres to harvested. The Ministry of Agriculture makes the forecast based on a surface of 13 million acres.
Consultancy Agroconsult announced yesterday a projection saying that Brazil have a soybean output of 95.8 million tons during the 2014/2015 season, which is a production hike compared to the 86.1 million tons produced last year.
Average productivity is currently projected at 45.1 bushels per acre, a jump from 42 bushels per acre last year. Agroconsult was expecting that the weather would improve in February and March and the crop would be excellent as it seems to be happening.
By Luís Vieira
With banks and consultancies predicting a GDP contraction in Brazil from -0.5% to -2%, this would be the most severe crisis in the South American country in the last 25 years after a 2014 marked by zero growth. On the other hand, agriculture would not be beaten down as other sectors are being, especially car manufacturing, housing, and the oil sector.
At a traditional farm show recently in Rio Grande do Sul, Agriculture and Livestock minister, Kátia Abreu, confirmed a consequence of the crisis that many Brazilian farmers had expected. Average farm business interest rates will increase from 6.5% to 8.5% starting with the contracts signed by next June. This allows several analysts to predict that corn and soybean surfaces will not grow in the next season, even in Mato Grosso. Brazil’s top soybean producing state would not have an area expansion of grains for the first time in several years.
One of the most respected economists in the country Alexandre Mendonça de Barros, an analyst at MB Agro (São Paulo), made this prediction at a lecture at Expodireto Cotrijal, the same farm show.
The soybean harvest has approached nearly 60 percent, according to a survey released by consultancy AgRural last Friday. Compared to the previous week, there was a jump of nine percentage points.
Sunny days in states such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, and Paraná have pushed the harvest recently. In the meantime, in Minas Gerais and Goiás rains have stopped the works. Mato Grosso, the top producing state, has 88 percent of the crop harvested.
Again attempting to protect themselves from inflation and low international prices of soybean, Argentinean farmers are now holding a stock of 7.4 million tons of the oilseed, to according to the Rural Association of Argentina. This is a jump of 12 compared to last year. But other sources estimate that the number can be up to 15 million tons. The government, on other hand, pressures farmers to speed up sales in order to receive the export tax.
“The government will create new rules to pressure farmers to sell faster, but considering the uncertainty that they face, they will not speed up sales,” said Ernesto Ambrosetti, chief economist at the Rural Association of Argentina. Currently, the price of soybeans in the South American country is US$ 354/ton. Farmers allege that the stocks are higher because of a record crop. Last year, the price of the oilseed was at US$ 527/ton, according to Reuters.
The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics increased the estimate for this season’s second corn crop in that center-western state of Brazil. Now the Institute says that the surface will be 7.3 million acres. That is a jump of 336,000 acres approximately compared to the previous estimate.
The average productivity is still expected to be 76.6 bushels per acre in the state. Therefore, the forecast for final output is 15.29 million tons.
The soybean harvest in the Brazilian state of Paraná to 66 percent of the surface, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. It was a jump from 52 percent registered last week.
There is a delay compared to last year, when nearly 74 percent of the area was harvested. The Department considers that 84 percent of the current soybean crop is “good”.
Consultancy AgRural estimates that the soybean harvest reached 50 percent of the expected planted surface in Brazil. The average for the last five years in the period is 54 percent. In 2014, Brazilian growers had harvested nearly 56 percent of the total production.
The works did not advance faster because of rains in producing regions. In Mato Grosso, the top producing state, harvest is under 80 percent.
According to the Mato Institute of Agricultural Economics, the planted surface of the second corn crop reached 98.5 percent of the total in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso. In one week, the works advanced 12.9 percentage points. Therefore, farmers from that state already planted 7.2 million acres. There is still a delay of 0.8 percent compared to the last season. Average yields are estimated at 76.6 bushels per acre (or 86 bags of 60kg per hectare).