By Luís Vieira
As Argentine farmers work hard on their harvest, they also worry about what they will do with leftovers of soybeans. According to Rosario-based analyst Pablo Fraga, who is from BLD brokerage, the perspective is that stocks are likely to be big when the harvest finishes. Local farmers had kept for long soybean stocks as a way to protest against the government and attempting to be paid with better prices.
Fraga reveals that right now those farmers that used that resort are selling most of their stocks. “The price is a bit lower compared to the peak of this season (US$ 320/ton), but still are good prices. Currently, farmers send to ports all the soybeans they can”, explained Fraga.
The weather has been “perfect” for the second crop of soybeans in the country of Paraguay, according to information revealed by Agridatos consultancy. Rains from April 11 to April 17 ranged accumulated over 15 inches. Productivity is expected to be 2.2 tons per hectare in at least half of the area of 1.3 million acres planted in the country. The other 50 percent was planted in February when the weather was not that helpful.
The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics informed today that the state of Mato Grosso, in the center-west of Brazil, already sold 75.5 percent of a soybean production of 26.1 million tons. The pace of sales is nearly 6.5 percent delayed compared to the same period of last year. The prices of soybeans have fallen 1.6 percent in the average of last week. The fall was pushed by a fall of the oilseed value in Chicago and the devaluation of the US dollar compared to the Brazilian Real.
By Luís Vieira
Two of the most prominent Brazilian economists José Roberto Mendonça de Barros and Luiz Carlos Mendonça de Barros created in 1978 a consultancy called MB Associados to advise people interested on Brazil’s macroeconomics. As the importance of agriculture grew rapidly in the 1990s and early 2000s, the two associates have decided to create an agricultural arm for the company in 2005 – MB Agro, which is based in São Paulo.
In an interview to Agriculture.com, José Carlos Hausknecht, director of MB Agro, said that in the coming months a likely higher US dollar value might be helpful to Brazilian farmers, but he denied to predict an specific number. As of today, US$ 1 buys R$ 2.24. In 2014, the price reached over R$ 2.50.
The Department of Rural Economics of the Brazilian state of Paraná reported this week that planting already reached seven percent of a total estimated area of nearly three million acres of wheat in the state. Almost half of what was planted in is the stage of germination. The other half is on vegetative stage. According to the report, 100 percent of the crops are either in excellent or good conditions.
The planting of the second corn crop has advanced to 99 percent of the area in all the states south of Brasília, the most important producing areas of the country. According to Clarivi consultancy, the stage of flowering was reached in the state of Paraná and some parts of the center-west of Brazil. By comparison, last year in this same period the crop had reached 91.4 percent of the area. That area, however, is 2.3 percent smaller than the previous season because of lower corn prices. The projection is that Brazil will have a total corn crop of 75.4 million tons.
The weekly report of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange has released data on the progress of the soybean harvest in Argentina. The harvest has reached 14 percent of projected area of the country. More than seven inches were registered in the most important producing areas that are the provinces of Santa Fé, Córdoba, Entre Ríos, and Buenos Aires last weekend. A larger delay was expected, but the harvest pace is just 10 percent behind the last season. No productivity losses are forecast.
The planting of the second corn crop, known locally as safrinha, in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, in the center-western part of the country, has almost finished. But signs of a lower productivity have already appeared. For instance, Sorriso’s Rural Union informed this week that average losses for farmers from the region are at 10 percent compared to the productivity of last year. Some producers in the region have lost up to 30 percent of the productivity, Brazil’s portal G1 reported today. Those losses are happening because of continued rains in large parts of Mato Grosso. Corn was planted out of the ideal period after a delay on the soybean harvest.
After Reuters unveiled a default from Chinese companies of soybean contracts with Brazil and United States totaling a volume of 500,000 tons, representatives of the US Soybean Export Council told Bloomberg that China firms could cancel soybean contracts as big as two million tons. Soybeans traded lower yesterday in Chicago as a result of those talks.
By Luís Vieira
The USDA report has reduced the size of the Brazilian soybean crop to 87.5 million tons, but the number is still higher than most private consultancies have predicted. Carlos Cogo, a Porto Alegre consultant, puts the Brazilian soybean crop at 86 million tons.
For Cogo, domestic soybean prices may stabilize. “There is a trend of accommodation of domestic prices in the short-term as the harvest advances and an increased domestic supply in Brazil. If a record crop is confirmed in the US, “, he explained.
The corn production in Brazil, according to Cogo, will be nearly 75.4 million tons – higher than the 72 million tons forecast by the USDA. For the corn market, the analyst says that Brazil stocks will fall 6.4 percent to 8 million tons. “If this scenario is confirmed, prices would overcome the ones registered in the third quarter of 2013″, predicted.
Cogo also pointed out that Brazil’s National Supply Company has made a serious mistake with their own crop estimates. The state agency report predicted a total grain production in Brazil of 190.6 million tons, while the real number is 189.4 million tons – not a record of grain output. “Their sum included the wheat data regarding the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 crop seasons”, revealed.