Consultancy Agripac, based in Buenos Aires and Córdoba, has released a new estimate for Argentina’s soybean crop after several weeks of floods and fires in the country. They forecast a production of 50 million metric tons. The previous estimate was at 55 million metric tons. These losses of five million metric tons financially would mean nearly US$ 1.7 billion less in Argentinian farmer’s pockets or 7% of the total harvest value. Another estimate puts the total projection even lower: 48 metric tons, according to analyst Manuel Alvarado Ledesma.
Over the last few days, rains have continued in key soybean producing regions such as the south of Santa Fe, south of Córdoba and northwest of the Buenos Aires province. In the case of Venado Tuerto, a municipality in Santa Fe, the precipitation accumulated over 16 inches from December 15th to yesterday, which is the highest moisture in 27 years. Very similar precipitation was seen in the same period in Rafaela, also in Santa Fe. In the province of Córdoba, the rains are 50% above the average.
But in the case of several municipalities of south of Santa Fe, such as Hughes, northwestern Buenos Aires, such as General Villegas, there were over 23 inches in the past month alone.
“In the case of our citiy, the precipitation is measured since 1913. There was never so much rain like today,” farmer Alberto MArchionni from Hughes told prominent newspaper La Nación.
For meteorologist Eduardo Sierra of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange there will be new rains affects these same regions from the period of January 19th to January 25th.
According to the Rosario Board of Trade, nearly 2.4 million acres of soybeans still need to be planted. Some believe that there is still time to recover at least 1.2 million acres that are now under water can dry up and some acres yet can either planted or replanted until the end of the month.
Data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) revealed that until the end of December the farmers from that Brazilian state had sold 50.1 percent of the estimated soybean production. Mato Grosso expects to harvest nearly 30.4 million metric tons and there was an advance of 2.64 percentage points comparing to the previous months. Analysts say that most sales occurred during the first half of the month. The average price paid for the bag of 60 kilograms was R$ 65.30. The current pace of sales, according to Imea, is 6.47 percent slower than in the last season.
In Brazil’s major soybean producing state, Mato Grosso, truckers are in a strike that continues for the fourth straight day over the road BR-364. The movement will affect the shipping of corn and soybeans, as the harvest has already started. Protesters seek to renegotiate with major players such as Bunge and Archer Daniels Midlange the payments for truckers. There is not a full blockade in any of the roads of Mato Grosso so far, according to local sources, but the protests have slowed down transporation at BR-364.
Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso have started to harvest the soybean crop and the works reached 1.49 percent of the 23.2 million acres planted with the oilseed, according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). Comparing to last year, the harvest progress is 1.19 percent ahead. The works go faster in the central and southern parts of the state.
The USDA report data released today puts Argentina’s soybean production at the 2016/2017 season at 57 million metric tons. This is slightly higher than the number brought by the government of Argentina yesterday, which was 56 million metric tons and some private consultants. In the case of the Brazilian production, the U.S. agency foresees a production of 102.4 million metric tons, which is way below all estimates from Brazilian agencies and experts. As reported yesterday, Carlos Cogo sees a crop of 106 million metric tons, Conab at 103.8 million metric tons and Agroconsult at 104.4 million metric tons.
Porto Alegre-based consultant Carlos Cogo has released his own estimates about the Brazilian corn and soybean output for the present year. He sees a larger crop than what is projected by the National Supply Company (Conab). The agency estimates a total soybean production of 103.8 million metric tons, while Cogo projects 106.1 million metric tons of output of the oilseed. “The big difference is in Mato Grosso,” Cogo says.
Regarding corn, the consultant estimates a total producing in 2017 of 90.2 million metric tons with 61 million metric tons in the second crop or safrinha and 28.6 million metric tons coming from the summer crop, which is slightly higher the Conab projection that is at 28.4 million metric tons. Considering the second corn crop, on the other hand, the government agency puts it just at 56 million metric tons.
By Luís Vieira
Fires and floods at the same time. That is what Argentina has faced in the last several weeks in different regions of the country, and that may push some grains higher, especially soybeans.
The fires were generated in the southwest parts of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Rio Negro provinces due to dry weather in the region, affecting nearly 3.4 million acres. There is not significant planting of soybeans or corn in those places, but there are mostly wheat crops and cattle farms in there.
While local authorities claim to have contained the fires, key soybean-producing regions have faced floods that may continue. The floods are concentrated in the northwest area of the Buenos Aires province, Entre Ríos, south of Santa Fe and south of Córdoba.
Fires that seemed to be unstoppable were supressed by autorities in Argentina in a surface that overcame 3.4 million acres. Most of this area is located in the provinces of La Pampa, Rio Negro and southwest of Buenos Aires and the majority of the fields belong to cattle farmers. The financial losses were not accounted yet, but the government announced subsidized credit rescue programs to help those ranchers.
After a fall of Paraguayan wheat exports to Brazil in December, but Brazilian consultancy Trigo & Farinhas forecasts a recovery of these exports for three reasons. The first is the start of the Brazilian harvest with “aggressiveness” from the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Secondly, the strike of enforcement agents of the Brazilian revenue service is likely to end this months. Thirdly, the dollar is in a level that is seven percent lower than in December (rated at R$ 3.25), which is more acceptable for importers.
The exports of soybeans and all oilseed derivates coming from Brazil reached 67.1 million metric tons or US$ 25.32 billion last year, according to official data. The volume is 4.9 percent lower than the previous year and the value is 9.1 percent below 2015. The lower output due to the dryiness in some parts of the country affected the availability of the grain for exports, once the domestic demand continued to grow.