Argentina’s agricultural exports moved US$ 10.9 billion in the first six months of the year, according to data from the Center of Cereal Exporters. During last week alone, the sector moved US$ 308.7 million. Compared what was exported in 2016, it represents 45.6 percent of the sum of the whole year.
Category Archives: Barley
Carlos Cogo, a Porto Alegre-based consultant, revealed his estimates for the total soybean output in South America at 2014/2015 crop season. According to Cogo’s forecast, the total production in the region would be 168.8 million tons. Brazil would account for 95.4 million tons of the oilseed, followed by Argentina with 58.5 million tons, Paraguay with 8.5 million tons, and Uruguay 3.6 million tons. Bolivia would repeat the output of 2013/2014 with 2.7 million tons.
An early projection of Cogo for the next crop season (2015/2016) indicates a slight growth of 0.8 percent to 170.1 million tons in the region. As a result of that output and the Chinese demand for the grains, South American share of the global production would jump from 53.2 percent currently to 53.6 percent. The analyst says that total imports from China will grow 5.4 percent to a record of 77.5 million tons – in 2014/2015 was 73.5 million tons.
An estimated volume of 200,000 tons of wheat or nearly 10 percent of the surface of the cereal in the province of Buenos Aires were lost due to the rains of last weekend, according to data released by the Regional Consortium of Agricultural Experiment (CREA), an agricultural association of Argentina.
Over seven inches (180 millimeters) of rains accumulated just last Sunday in some regions of the province on average. The municipalities with losses accounted were Necochea, Lobería, Tres Arroyos, San Cayetano, Balcarce, and Coronel Dorrego. Losses on barley crops were also seen.
To make things worse, Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture announced that the total quota of wheat exports of 1.5 million was already overcame in the country. That would mean that the chain could not export more than this. But, according to Brazilian consultancy Trigo & Farinhas, the Ministry can possibly extend the quota and allow more volumes of exports.
In Argentina, the policy that imposes limitations on the exports of some grains have forced grain exports to drop nearly 47 percent in the first quarter of the year, local sources say. The only grain that did not have of fall in international sales was soybeans. Traditionally, the first three months of a year have significant exports of corn and wheat. Corn shipments dropped 82 percent to 702,000 tons, while wheat international sales fell 62 percent to 721,000 tons in the period. Barley and sorghum planted in Argentina have also registered fall on world sales.
Nearly one month away from the beginning of wheat planting in Argentina, the area is projected to increase by 9.58 percent to 9.8 million acres, according to an estimate of Agritrend. Even though there is an increase, the area is still small if the average of 1990’s is used as parameter.
Gustavo López of Agritrend says that the number could potentially be higher if the government takes positive measures for the sector before planting is started. He also projected a price per ton at US$ 204 in January of next year, what an attractive price that would make recover some fields that were replaced with barley recently.
According to a new report from Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural Research, productivity in the country is higher with barley than with wheat. This crop season, Uruguayans have harvested 3.5 tons/hectare, which is a record. The barley productivity in Uruguayan soils beats wheat since 2007. Analysts project that the total areas of barley in Uruguay will increase significantly in 2014.
According to a survey from the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, the so-called retentions, or the local taxes applied on agricultural exports, have reached an average of 33 percent on barley. The price paid to exporters in December was US$ 287 per ton of barley with 31,378 tons sold so far. Currently, the harvest of the cereal is under 36 percent of the La Pampa province, where the it has higher quality.
Interview: Horacio Veiga, analyst at Novitás SA
By Luís Vieira
In order to learn more about the results in the grain market after several changes in Argentina and other major producers, we have interviewed many experts. One of them is Horacio Veiga, an analyst at Novitás SA, a brokerage from Buenos Aires. He told us that Argentinean growers will continue to look more to barley. In 2012/2013, barley production reached a record of five million tons in the country with an area of 3.8 million acres, according to Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture.
AgroSouth News – A year ago, the soybeans were a huge trend in Argentina. Now, however, there are some producers looking more into corn – not in all regions. What explains the change?
Horacio Veiga – This change is happening because of the last year drought in the United States, which has boosted international prices of corn. Argentinean producers have found good earnings on time, even though there are governmental interventions and retentions, and have led them to increase the area under the fodder.
AgroSouth News – The land renters in Argentina have had all sorts of troubles to have earnings. Is there a solution on the short-term?
Veiga – The scenario of high inflation (25 percent annually), the virtual exchange splitting, the decline of the future grain values have diminished significantly the earning of Argentine producers. If the current economic policy is maintained, it will be difficult that we have positive margins in the 2013/2014 season for renters. It is also a result of the failure of the actual fine grain sowing.
AgroSouth News – The growing interventions for wheat and bad weather have brought a better price. However, there are commercialization limits in Argentina. Does the perspective remain the same?
Veiga – Wheat exports and flour exports are currently ceased in Argentina. There wouldn’t be enough wheat until November, when new wheat begins to be harvested. There are many rumors about imports of wheat coming from Uruguay, even though federal employees are not willing to allow it because it would show evidences of the failure of the policy to defend “the tables of Argentinians”. The perspective continues the same. An scheme of high government intervention. A government which decides when it grants export licensees according to its economic needs. When obtaining these licensees, the exporter must pay for the 23 percent export duty. So both wheat and corn policies in market intervention have been systematically hurting producers.
AgroSouth News – Argentina has seen recently valuation of its currency. Other emerging markets have seen the opposite. Why?
Veiga – This is a product of high inflationary levels that until recently was growing at a faster rate than the exchange rate. Devaluing the local currency is against the governmental thought and they will avoid it to happen. However, there are no options in a mid-term perspective. We have to take into account that this is an electoral year and measures under these terms will not be taken before October 27, when there are elections. In this context, the Argentinian farmers face a very important lost of competitiveness.
AgroSouth News – What other cultures Argentinians have looked?
Veiga – In the last few years there was an exponential growth of barley with detriment of wheat, due to the government intervention on the wheat exports during the last six seasons, which has located the prices below the payment capacity of local purchasers. The sorghum area, even though in smaller measures, is also being developed. We are beginning to boost the culture of rapeseed.
AgrouSouth News – How sales will work after the grain strike? Will the volume be strong?
Veiga – Not necessarily. Producers will remain selling the grains, especially, according to their financial needs.