The market already speculates with a possible lost of the strength of the El Niño phenomenon at the first semester of 2016 and, therefore, the coming of La Niña. The forecast is based on data from the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia and the meteorology services of Japan that puts the peak of El Niño during the first semester of next year. An anticipation of La Niña would result in drier weather in both South America and North America. The market reacted with rallies on the prices of palm oil, sugar and dairy products last week. Some consultancies asked by AgroSouth News have put greater risk in the future for the prices of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and coffee.
Category Archives: Bolivia
The Association of Wheat and Oilseed Producers of Bolivia expressed preoccupation with the end of the export tax on grains in Argentina and the currency devaluation in the next door neighbor. The association says that dire effects will be felt in a mid-term period with a higher supply in the world’s market. “The higher supply is worse for Bolivian growers because of the higher costs of logistics and the trade restrictions that we have for soybeans,” a statement reads.
On the other hand, the association says that there will be less smuggle of wheat and corn from Argentina with the end of the export taxes, something that may benefit Bolivian farmers. The total soybean output in Bolivia is expected to be 2.8 million metric tons this season – a nine percent fall compared to last year.
By Luís Vieira
SHANGHAI AND BEIJING, China (Agriculture.com) – The Chinese grain stocks, purchase intentions, and production estimates are always an issue of concern and curiosity for the followers of the markets. However, when one goes to China it is relatively easy to find the reasons and the data that some folks may be eager to know in the U.S., South America and around the world.
Perhaps because of China’s censorship and cultural differences compared to western democracies, when the country does make public its numbers and does not explain the reasons for its decisions, the guessing game starts to play out.
In general, a lot of people do not feel very comfortable in China talking about of food and some asked not to be identified. Feeding 1.3 billion persons is one of the major concerns of its central government and keep food security a top priority. But in communism or other closed regimes, it will depend on the persons you talk to.
Carlos Cogo, a Porto Alegre-based consultant, revealed his estimates for the total soybean output in South America at 2014/2015 crop season. According to Cogo’s forecast, the total production in the region would be 168.8 million tons. Brazil would account for 95.4 million tons of the oilseed, followed by Argentina with 58.5 million tons, Paraguay with 8.5 million tons, and Uruguay 3.6 million tons. Bolivia would repeat the output of 2013/2014 with 2.7 million tons.
An early projection of Cogo for the next crop season (2015/2016) indicates a slight growth of 0.8 percent to 170.1 million tons in the region. As a result of that output and the Chinese demand for the grains, South American share of the global production would jump from 53.2 percent currently to 53.6 percent. The analyst says that total imports from China will grow 5.4 percent to a record of 77.5 million tons – in 2014/2015 was 73.5 million tons.
Market analyst Carlos Cogo revealed to AgroSouth News today his own estimates for the South American soybean crop. According to his consultancy forecast, Brazil would have an output of 95.9 million tons, Argentina would produce 55 million tons of the oilseed, Paraguay would harvest 10.4 million tons, 3.6 million tons from Uruguay and 2.6 million tons coming from Bolivia.
With those numbers confirmed, there would be a reduction of the region’s share in the global soybean market falling from 54.9 percent last year to 53.3 percent this year.
“The strong highs of the dollar in Brazil and a US$ 10 per bushel floor would bring positive margins in all producing regions of Brazil. However, the favorable weather in South America and the harvest in Brazil will impose a downward pressure on domestic prices in the short-term. […] ‘The climate weather’ can generate isolated bullish pressures, though,” Cogo concluded.
By Luís Vieira
If there is one region in the world that could possibly compete with the U.S. as the world’s supplier of corn and soybeans, that would be South America. There has been a significant surface expansion (mostly in Brazil and Argentina) in the last three decades, new players are involved (such as Paraguay and Bolivia), and there is a large amount of available land in Brazil.
A study by Bain & Company, a Boston consultancy, forecasts that Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay together would produce 600 million tons of soybeans and 1.5 billion tons of corn by 2050. To achieve this, those countries would need an annual growth of soybean production between 3% and 4%. While China is the major soybean buyer, 60% of demand would need to come from other developing nations in Asia.
Bolivia announced yesterday that it was certified in Paris by the World Organization for Animal Health that its Amazonian region, which represents 56 percent of the Bolivian livestock territory, as free of mad cow disease with vaccination. Other regions of the country such as Chiquitania, del Chaco, and los valleys were already considered free of mad cow without vaccination. Therefore, the whole country is now certificated.
The certification will allow Bolivia to export to new markets like Europe. In South America, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina are already considered free of mad cow. Bolivia currently has 8.3 million cattle herds.
By Luís Vieira
The Bolivian Association of Oilseed Producers predicts that the Andean country will produce nearly 3.2 million tons of soybeans this year. That accounts that soybeans already harvest in the summer, which were 2.3 million tons, and the coming winter crop, where Bolivians expect to harvest 690,000 tons more.
The United States Department of Agriculture published in its last report a crop estimate that apparently was outdated or pessimistic – projecting a Bolivian soybeans output of just nearly 2.7 million tons. Denise McWilliams from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service explained that the number is being reviewed, but a new estimate would just be released by June 11 – date of release of the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. “Bolivia has begun harvest of their second crop of soy and estimates now vary from 2.1 milllion tons up to 3.1 million tons. With a good first crop now harvested, the variability stems from the expectation of the second crop”, McWilliams said to AgroSouth News.
Some might say that Bolivia has more potential to grow soybeans than Paraguay. The most relevant producing region is the Department of Santa Cruz in the eastern part of the country. Nearly 99 percent of the Bolivian soybeans are genetically modified and about 66 percent planted by foreign-born farmers like Argentinians, Brazilians, and Japanese.
Soybeans grown in Bolivia are exported to Colombia (42 percent), Peru (29 percent), Ecuador (eight percent), and Venezuela (eight percent), and to Brazil and Spain in smaller volumes. The total Bolivian exports of the oilseed summed 300,000 tons last year.
Bolivia and Uruguay negotiate the construction of a new port in the Rocha Department of Uruguay which will would give access for Bolivia to export grains to Asian markets.
The monthly food inflation in Latin America has the lowest level in two years with 0.1 percent in June, according to the United Nations Organization for Food and Agriculture. This is the first time that food prices decreased in over a year. The general inflation in the continent was 0.5 percent.
Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Dominica Republic and Uruguay had the most significant drop on food prices. Argentina, on the other hand, has shown the second highest increase with more than one percent inflation in the month on grocery stores. Venezuela had the average food prices increased by six percent.
Fao also says that Brazil and Colombia had no significant change on food prices in the month. Prior to June, Brazil took several step to fight food inflation such as lowering importing tariff and decreasing other sorts of production costs.
Bolivia plans to release through its National Wheat Program the use of new wheat varieties in order to reach 1.8 million acres of planted área until 2014. The announcement was made by the country’s vice-minister of Land and Rural Development, Victor Hugo Vásquez. “The seed varietes will bring productivity of 3 tons per hectare. This means that we would reach 750,000 acres in area of wheat production”, said Vásquez.
Vásquez added that Bolivia’s Company of Seeds have produced 400,000 tons of wheat seeds. It is estimated that approximately 150,000 families produce wheat in the Andean country. According to the vice-minister, the new seeds will control caterpillars and would bring more earnings for the agricultural sector.