The first report issued by consultancy AgRural for the 2016/2017 crop season in Brazil reveals that the planting progress just reached 0.3% of the expected surface. The works have not advanced in the last few weeks because of dry and hot weather. Most farmers are trying to avoid replanting and have awaited the best climate condition to begin works. A year ago, planting was at 5% of the surface. As of now, the most advanced progress in the state of Paraná with 1.7% of the crop planted. Total output potential is seen at 109.7 million metric tons.
For corn, planting already started well in the Southern states and the commercial surface planting reached 19% of the total crop. In the South, the progress is at 40%. Santa Catarina leads with 55% of the works finished, followed by Rio Grande do Sul with 45%, and Paraná has just 16% of the crop planted. The dry weater has been a setback especially in the region of Campos Gerais, Paraná, near Curitiba, the state’s capital. According to AgRural, the estimated corn production for the Center-South of Brazil is 22.4 million metric tons, which is 10% less than the previous summer crop.
Private consultancies estimates in Brazil have projections for corn in production pointing to a reduction of the corn planted area from 20% to 30% of the previous surface. Paulo Bertolini, director of the Brazilian Association of Corn Growers, foresees a reduction that could reach even 50%. But some local perspectives bring even lower estimates for the coming season.
In the view of Carlos Dellavalle, an agronomist in Lagoa Vermelha, Northeast of Rio Grande do Sul, there could be a reduction of up to 60% or more of the corn surface in this season.
“Nobody is talking about corn here. All we talk is about soybeans. The inputs market is very slow. I can say that here the surface would reduce 70%,” revealed Dellavalle to AgroSouth News.
Dellavalle is a pusher of alternative winter crops and owns the company DeAgro in Lagoa Vermelha, also teaches Production Systems at the University of Passo Fundo.
A report from the Rural Institute of Technical Assistance of Rio Grande do Sul (Emater/RS) reveals that the planting surface for corn the southern southernmost state of Brazilian reached 34 percent of the surface. The area planted in the season 1.8 million acres, which is 11.,7 percent below the previous crop. Conditions in Rio Grande do Sul are considered favorable, but there are some plague occurrences taking place already.
Alongside that, soybean growers in Rio Grande do Sul are at the stage of input purchases and chemical management to start planting the oilseed. Most growers are likely to begin planting in October.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has released a new report this Tuesday (09.12) and confirmed a record grain production of 238.7 million metric tons in the 2016/2017 season. The total output is 27.9 percent or 51 million metric tons higher than last year due to more favorable weather that generated higher yields.
The first crop finished with a total output of 30.46 million metric tons, while the second corn crop, that is about to finish harvest, is still estimated at 67.25 million metric tons. In the meantime, the total soybean production in the country was 114 million metric tons.
For wheat, there is an estimated production of 5.19 million metric tons, but there is still a lot to be harvested. For cotton, a harvest is near the end with an estimate of 1.53 million metric tons of cotton plume and 2.3 million metric tons of cotton core. In the season, 12.33 million metric tons of rice were produced.
After abundant rains over the weekend, nearly three percent of the total surface for the grain agriculture in the season, or 2.4 million acres, could not be used in the next season in Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. Experts at the Cereal Exchange do not eliminate the possibility that more acres are cut. In just ten days, there was more rain volume than expected for the month of September in key producing provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, La Pampa, and Entre Rios.
Agroconsult has released a new projection this Tuesday (09.05) that forecasts a reduction of output for both soybeans and corn. The total soybean surface would rise to 86.4 million acres (3 percent from last year), but as the yields would drop, the total output would fall to 111.1 million metric tons (4 percent less).
The summer corn crop would also shrink. The first of the two crops planted in a year in Brazil would be cut by 14 percent and would reach a volume of 26.1 million metric tons.
Meteorologists in Brazil see a high possibility that a stronger La Niña phenomenon would be seen in the coming months in Brazil. The country prepares for planting after fallowing in the Center-Western states, such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, but rains would affect planting works in the southern states such as Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, delaying the works. Some experts say that if planting delays from the early planting in Parana, a significant number of Asian Rust cases would be seen.
Not expecting a surface reduction so strong that some predicted, INTL FCSTone foresees that Brazil would have its summer corn crop (2017/2018) planted surface shrank by 10 percent to 12.2 million acres. But the reduction of the output would be sharper. The production decrease would reach 20 percent with a volume of 24 million metric tons. For Ana Luiza Lodi, an analyst at FCStone, the availability of corn in the domestic market will make would push a migration to soybeans. The new crop could start with stocks of nearly 20 million metric tons for the consultancy.
By Luís Vieira
Porto Alegre, BRAZIL — When crop prices are so low, farmers always want reassurance of a profitable payout for their production.
In Brazil, that payout has become too low. As a result, farmers are prepared to cut corn production in half this year.
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The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange has updated its report for the corn crop in Argentina. The current estimate for total production is 39 million metric tons, the same from the previous week, and the harvest reached 89.4 percent of the planted surface of 12.04 million acres. The only region with concerns for the harvest is the province of Buenos Aires, with an excess of moisture in some parts.