Agroconsult was the latest consultancy in Brazil to update its soybean production projection to 114.1 million metric tons. The surface planted was increased to 86.4 million acres in a scenario where the yields fell 3.5% compared to the previous season.
“The surface increase of soybeans will occur mostly over soybean crops due to the expressive reduction of the profitability of the grain. Secondarily, we will have yet the contribution of pasture areas for this growth”, explains André Pessoa, associate director at Agroconsult.
The first consultancy in Brazil to estimate a production above 114 million metric tons was Porto Alegre-based Safras & Mercado in December. Back then, their projection was already 114.6 million metric tons.
Consultancy INTL FCStone revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop from 107.6 million metric tons to 110.1 million metric tons. The adjustment came because of higher yields, but the area planted has not suffered alterations.
According to INTL FCStone, even with delays on planting, due to the slow normalization of rains, currently the crop conditions are very favorable and the climate has contributed for a positive perspective. Therefore, the average productivity expected was 3.15 tons per hectare.
“Anyways, the climate keeps following the crops passing through grain filling. In the states where planting takes place later, the climate in February is also determining”, affirms the consultancy.
For corn, INTL FCStone did not bring changes in comparison to the December numbers. The estimated output is 23.4 million metric tons, a fall of 23% compared to the previous cycle. Overall, the climate is favorable, but in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where the conditions are drier, there is worry about the impact on some fields. “Anyways, the yield project is already lower for that state”, says the consultancy.
It is still early to talk about the second corn crop, but INTL FCStone reduced the projection to 63.2 million metric tons because of a lower surface in the state of Paraná.
The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange released a new report yesterday (12.14) with updated crop conditions in Argentina. The soybean planting in the country is still delayed and reached 63.5% of the estimated surface of 44.7 million acres. The half of the remaining area is expected to be planted in the coming two weeks if the weather helps.
Recent rains have improved conditions, but they were still insufficient to generate a major work progress. The risk pointed out by the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange is that a lot of the grain will be out of the commercial market. Compared to the same period of last year, there is a delay of three percentage points for soybeans.
In the case of corn, the works have advanced to 45.3% of the total surface of 13.3 million acres. The weather has been a worry for crops in the Northern provinces of Chaco and Salta.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) released this morning (12.12) a new report that foresees an overall drop of the country’s grain production of 4.7% compared to the previous season. The total grain production in the country is expected to fall to 237.7 million metric tons.
Considering soybeans alone, the output would fall from 114.1 million metric tons from the previous season to 109.2 million metric tons. In the meantime, total corn production is estimated at 92.2 million metric tons – five million metric tons less. The output harvested in the summer would be 25 million metric tons and the second crop would be about the same of last yera – around 67 million metric tons.
For Conab, the Brazilian soybean surface is expected to increase by 3.1% to 86.4 million acres, but the production would be lower because of lower yields. The corn area would drop 9.6%, which is a reduction of 1.3 million acres.
Raw cotton production is expected to reach 1.7 million metric tons this year, jumping 10.5% compared to the previous season. The rice output is expected to reduce by 5.8% to 11.6 million metric tons.
Pablo Adreani, an Argentinian analyst at AgriPac, a consultancy from Córdoba, affirmed this weekend that the remaning acres that need to be planted in Argentina are threatened by the lack of rain. According to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, soybean sowing reached 53% of the estimated surface and the planting of corn got to 4o% of the projected area. The weather forecast there will be no rain in most Argentinian regions in the last 15 days of December.
“This week, if there is not important rains, there will be only two weeks in which we could plant. This situation is extraordinary and could be a lethal factor to the market”, said Pablo Adreani in his column at Buenos AIres prominent newspaper La Nación. One of the exceptions is the region of Rio Cuarto, Córdoba, which will have some precipitation in the last days of the year, according to the current weather forecast. “We are in a full weather market and, if there no miracle, we will see a brand new situation in the country. Nearly 50% of the hectares planted in the summer are at stake,” reads his column.
Pablo Adreani yet forecasts that there will be a strong volatility in the market in the coming days. “There is no doubt that we will have from now one of the most volatile and extraordinary markets, which would be impossible to foresse prices. While that happens, the farmer continues to be ‘sat’ on soybeans,” said the analyst referring to the 12 million metric tons of soybeans stocks in Argentina. Farmers await for a gradual reduction of soybean taxes in the coming year to sell.
A new report from the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange reveals that the works of soybean planting advanced 10 percentage points in one week. The total estimated surface to be planted is 44.7 million acres and 53.2% of this area was reached by planters. It is a delay of 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous year crop. In the northeastern parts of the country, the works still lag behind, while the Northwest is about to start.
In the case of corn, planting has reached 40.4% of a surface of 13.3 million acres, while the sunflower planting is about to finish with 98.1% of the total area implemented.
International consultancy INTL FCStone released a new projection for the Brazilian grain and oilseeds crop. In the December edition, the consultancy increased the estimate of Brazilian soybean production to 107.6 million metric tons – down from 106.1 million metric tons a month before.
“Planting is about to be finished, but the yield estimates are better than expected with favorable conditions”, said analyst Ana Luiz Lodi.
For summer crop corn, the consultancy estimates a Brazilian production of 23.4 million metric tons because of a smaller planted surface. Corn yields are expected to be also lower. “The shrink will be very significant”, concludes Lodi.
For the second corn crop, an output of 63.5 million metric tons is projected, which would be a fall of 5.8% compared to last year. The window for planting is tight and there is greater climate risk.
The most recent report of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange reveals that the soybean planting advanced 10.2 percentage points in one week. It reached 34% of an estimated area for the oilseed of 44.7 million acres, which is 0.3 percentage points ahead of last year. The worst cases of dryness are seen in Santa Fe.
The corn planting progressed to 35.8% of an area of 13.3 million acres. For the grain, however, there is a delay of 5.1 percentage points compared to 2016. From last week, the works advanced 0.4 percentage points. Some focuses of Asian Rust were reported by the Cereal Exchange in Santa Fe. Lack of moisture is reported in several locations of the country.
As news regarding the dryness in some parts of Argentina catches the attention of the public, the planting progress in the most importation soybean region of the country, which considered the North of the Buenos Aires province, South of Santa Fe, and South of Córdoba, indicates the fastest soybean planting ever. There was the implementation of 4.6 million acres in just one week. The data is from the Rosario Board of Trade.
Now, the region needs rain, in order to advance with another 1.8 million acres to finish planting. The weather forecast says there will be within the period from Wednesday night to Thursday night. Recently, the temperatures overcame 100 degrees (39 degrees Celsius).
The Rosario Board of Trade has not released yet a national estimate for volume regarding the 2017/2018 season.
Corn planting in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, the southern-most state in the country, overcame 90% of the projected surface of 1.8 million acres. At this time, there is a reduction of the initial forecast for the planted area for cash corn, while sillage would have the same surface. The information is from the state’s Rural Institute of Technical Assistance.
In general, the crops present good plant population and yields tend to be high if there are not any weather setbacks. For soybeans, which Rio Grande do Sul is the third largest producer, planting reach 40% with good conditions too.