In several regions of Brazil, farmers are not being able to start planting because of dry weather. But some meteorologists, like Celso Oliveira from Somar Meteorologia, say that moisture conditions are under normality for the period.
The weather forecast until September 22 says that the climate will be dry in most parts of the country, but rains will drop in southern states like Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina. Some changes would happen between September 23 and September 27, but the weather would still be dry in the Center-West. Rains would just be sufficient after this period with up to 2.7 inches, which would be slightly below the average for the region.
After the end of fallowing in all states, everything is set up for the start of planting of corn and soybeans in Brazil. Fallowing a legal agronomic practice that forbids planting in 90 days to avoid the Asian Rust. But the big issue is that the climate is not likely to help. In the state of Paraná, the second largest producer for both crops, planting has already delayed due to dryness. Lack of rain is also seen in other states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. Favorable conditions are just seen in Rio Grande do Sul at the moment. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States increased the probability of a stronger La Niña from 55 percent to 65 percent.
A new cold front has come in the last week of this winter to the central regions of Argentina bring temperatures below 10 degree Celsius (50 degrees F) or even five degrees (41 F) in some cases, but these temperatures would go up again by the weekend. The forecast from the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange also says that rains would return to the main producing rains after the scarcity of drops in the middle of the coming week. More precipitation would be seen in the Northern parts of the country. Argentina is about to start planting of corn and soybeans.
The planting of soybeans and corn in some key regions of Brazil was expected to start this week, but it did not happen. There is lack of rain in the states of Mato Grosso, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Some analysts say that is too early to be alarmed, but Somar Mereologia forecasts scarce rains in the coming days of September.
After abundant rains over the weekend, nearly three percent of the total surface for the grain agriculture in the season, or 2.4 million acres, could not be used in the next season in Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. Experts at the Cereal Exchange do not eliminate the possibility that more acres are cut. In just ten days, there was more rain volume than expected for the month of September in key producing provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, La Pampa, and Entre Rios.
The Rosario Board of Trade released data that foresses that precipitations of 1.77 inches to 1.9 inches could affect the provinces of Santa Fe in Argentina as it prepares to plant corn. If this volume of rain really falls, experts say that will be impossible to plant corn in September and would delay also the planting of soybeans. The planting will be limited in the province of Buenos Aires and La Pampa because they are previously affected by floods.
Meteorologists in Brazil see a high possibility that a stronger La Niña phenomenon would be seen in the coming months in Brazil. The country prepares for planting after fallowing in the Center-Western states, such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, but rains would affect planting works in the southern states such as Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, delaying the works. Some experts say that if planting delays from the early planting in Parana, a significant number of Asian Rust cases would be seen.
Wheat planting in Argentina is getting to the final stretch with nearly 98 percent of the total surface planted. There is some dry soils in regions like the Center-East of the Entre Ríos province, North of La Pampa, and West of the Buenos Aires province. Of the 13 million acres that were already planted, 74 percent of the conditions are considered good, 16 percent under normal conditions and 7 percent are excellent. The data was released by the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange on Thursday (08.10).
Compared to last year, the Paraguayan wheat production would be reduced from 1.1 million metric tons last year to 694,000 tons this year, according to a new estimate from AgriDatos. The previous estimate was at 851,000 tons, but cases of frost and dry weather pushed the projection even lower.
The second corn crop harvest has advanced to 67 percent of the planted surface in the Brazilian state of Paraná, according to official data. This is an advance of 10 percentage points compared to the previous week. Of the volume yet to be harvested, 87 percent of the crop is considered under good conditions. The state of Paraná is the second largest corn producer in Brazil.